Is it worth the sacrifice?
Predictions for 10-year public equity returns. Trillion-dollar green building materials market. Climate tech sector investment by city.
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Today’s topics.
🗺️ Variation in climate tech sector investment by city.
💰 The coming trillion-dollar green building materials market.
📈 Predictions for 10-year public equity financial returns in the future.
😓 Is it worth the sacrifice? Probably not.
1.
🗺️ The climate tech sectors getting the most investment vary WIDELY based on city and country. I mean, wide like a sumo wrestler doing the splits.
That’s hard to unsee. I know. Sorry.
The super cool illustrations below are from our friends at CTVC.
Similarly, the most active investors vary by city, too. (Except for the good folks at Collaborative Fund, who are omnipresent.)
New York City
San Francisco
Houston
Boston
2.
💰 The green building materials market is projected to grow from $474B today to $1.2T by 2032, with a 12% CAGR.
When I got my PhD in green building and hung out in hand-built cabins with former hippies (obviously) decades ago, I lacked the imagination to foresee a headline like this.
Here’s a great map of some key players in this space.
And if green building is the whipped cream to your pumpkin pie, check out these two EFI podcasts in this sector:
#167: Matt Ellis, CEO at Measurabl — ESG Software for Real Estate. $170M+ Raised. $2T of Value. 17B Square Feet. Selling Data. FTSE Partnership. Transparency Matters.
#169: Amit Gupta, CEO of Aeroseal — $100M Invested in Heating and Cooling Energy Efficiency. 40 Years of Lab Testing. Managing Our Energy Like We Manage Our Time. Determined and Detached.
3.
📈 What will public equity investment returns be over the next ten years?
No one has a perfect crystal ball to see the future.
But you better find one when you manage over $8 trillion in assets, as Vanguard does.
Below are their predictions for 10-year returns going forward.
Two notes:
Foreign equities are projected to deliver higher returns than US equities (~7.7% vs. ~4.3%).
Large-cap US equities delivered 12.4% over the prior ten years vs. the estimated 4.1% projected for the next ten years.
How does this relate to climate change?
The past doesn’t predict the future. Thankfully, there’s hope.
Focusing mostly on GHG emissions in the US is a very incomplete approach.
—
4.
😓 Is it worth the sacrifice? Probably not.
Maybe you’re also a dork and used to love reading about the etymology of words in the dictionary.
Here’s an example that might give us pause to think:
The root of the word “sacrifice:”
Sacer = “holy, sacred”
Fic (form of facere) = “to make, build, construct”
I heard this while driving home from my solo retreat in the Blue Ridge mountains listening to this Huberman Lab podcast — Dr. James Hollis: How to Find Your True Purpose & Create Your Best Life.
The question for me and you is this:
If we audit our calendars, review our budgets, or watch where our thoughts go most moments, are we sacrificing time, money, and mental space for things we think are sacred?
🎯 Join EFI’s climate CEO peer group.
If you want to scale faster without burning out or being so lonely at the top, and you’ve raised > $15M or are generating > $5M in revenue, then join our community of 75 CEOs and investors at EFI.
Apply to be an EFI Climate Fellow today.
That’s all, y’all.
Make it a great week because it’s usually a choice.
— Dr. Chris Wedding: Founder of Entrepreneurs for Impact
P.S. Mark Twain on mindfulness: “I've had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened.”
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Ooh! The root of the word sacrifice- so good. Thank you!
Hi Chris, In your point No. 2 do you have a source for these figures? Many thanks, S